The Cuestio index edition 003October 2026
The cart’s calendar.
The last quarter of the year is not bought as a single block. In this edition of El Carrito Real we followed, week by week, what Panamanian households bought between October and December 2025, based on the Cuestio panel’s analysis of the DGI electronic invoices that facturillo users contribute, and what emerges is a calendar of very specific dates, each with its own cart. We close with what that means for a brand or a chain in 2026: which date brings which purchase, and when to be present.
The edition in three figures
The Panamanian cart’s high season is not a month but a sequence of dates, and each one buys something different.
Mother’s Day week was the most Christmas-heavy week of the year, with 20 of every 1,000 products in the cart devoted to Christmas. Over the November patriotic holidays, almost one in five dollars was spent outside Panamá and Panamá Oeste, and Black Friday brought more than twice as many shoppers to clothing stores as a normal Friday.
Figures verified at the October 2026 publication cut. Chains anonymized in public figures.
Finding
1The most Christmas-heavy week in the cart is Mother’s Day week
Measured as the share of what goes into the cart that is Christmas products (decorations, lights, garlands, gift wrap and Christmas-themed sweets and breads), the high point of the year does not come in Christmas week but two weeks earlier. In the week of December 8, the Mother’s Day holiday in Panama, 20 of every 1,000 products the panel’s households bought were Christmas products, while in Christmas week the share had already fallen to 8.8, less than half. Off season, from February to August, they barely appear, at around one in every 9,000 products.
The difference has a practical explanation. What is bought to decorate the home is bought early, and on the receipts decorations and lights account for most of the peak, so by the time Christmas week arrives the home is already decorated and the cart moves on: that week the heaviest Christmas products are the ones to eat, such as roscas, sweet bread and ham.
Christmas products per 1,000 products bought, by week, September 2025 to January 2026
| Week | Per 1,000 |
|---|---|
| Week of September 29 | 1.0 |
| Week of November 3 (patriotic holidays) | 3.1 |
| Week of November 17 | 9.0 |
| Week of November 24 (Black Friday) | 12.7 |
| Week of December 1 | 15.1 |
| Week of December 8 (Mother’s Day) | 20.0 |
| Week of December 15 | 11.7 |
| Week of December 22 (Christmas) | 8.8 |
| Off season, February to August 2026 | 0.1 |
Window: Monday-to-Sunday weeks, September 2025 to January 2026. Christmas products identified by each product’s description on the receipt. Off season: average of the weeks from February to August 2026.
For brands: Christmas decoration is won between Black Friday week and December 14, the three heaviest weeks of the season. A decorations campaign that waits for Christmas week arrives when those products already weigh less than half as much.
Finding
2Christmas shows up in September, but takes off after the patriotic holidays
Christmas products do not wait for December to appear. By late September they were already in the cart, although still in a small proportion, about one in every 1,000 products, and through October and the first half of November they gained weight little by little.
The big jump came in the week of November 17, right after the November 10 holiday, when the share of Christmas products almost doubled from one week to the next (+97%). From there the season accelerated, and by Black Friday week more than one in eight of the panel’s shoppers already had something Christmas-related on their receipt.
Window: weeks from September to December 2025. The weekly jump is measured on the share of Christmas products in the cart, between weeks with at least 30 buyers of those products. Shoppers: people with at least one receipt carrying a Christmas product that week, over people with any receipt that week.
For brands: October and the first half of November are for building presence and range, but real demand starts the week after November 10. That is when the display has to be ready and the campaign live.
Finding
3The patriotic holidays move part of spending out of the capital
Over the November patriotic holidays, almost one in every five dollars the panel’s households spent was spent outside the provinces of Panamá and Panamá Oeste, when on a normal day that share is one in seven. The busiest days were Monday November 3 and Tuesday November 4, when one in four shoppers paid a receipt outside Panamá and Panamá Oeste.
The holidays also show in what gets bought: the share of shoppers who bought beer was close to 70% higher than on a normal day, a rise spread across many shoppers rather than concentrated in a few large receipts.
Window: Saturday November 1 to Wednesday November 5, 2025, against the same weekdays between October 4 and November 26, holidays excluded. Location by the province of the branch that issued the receipt. Beer: people who bought it over people with any receipt each day.
For brands: the patriotic holidays take part of the shopping to the interior, and that is where to reinforce presence, stock and display on those days. Drinks promotions should cover the holidays themselves, not just the eve.
Finding
4Panama’s Black Friday is a clothing day
Friday November 28, 2025 was both Black Friday* and Independence Day, and above all it was a clothing day. One in six of the day’s shoppers bought at a clothing store, when on a normal October or November Friday the share is one in fourteen, more than double.
The holiday alone does not explain the jump. The other November holidays barely moved clothing: on November 3 the share was 8.6% and on November 10 it was 7.4%, close to a normal Friday. In 2026 Black Friday and Independence Day fall on different days, Friday November 27 and Saturday November 28.
Share of the day’s shoppers who bought at a clothing store
| Day | Shoppers at clothing stores |
|---|---|
| Normal October or November Friday, 2025 | 7.0% |
| Monday November 3, holiday | 8.6% |
| Monday November 10, holiday | 7.4% |
| Friday November 28, Black Friday and Independence Day | 16.6% |
Window: Friday November 28, 2025 against the Fridays from October 4 to November 26, holidays excluded. The November 3 and November 10 holidays against the Mondays of the same period. Shoppers: people with any receipt that day. * Black Friday is not the Panamá Black Weekend of the shopping centres, which is a different date and a different event: in 2025 it ran from October 3 to 5 and in 2026 from October 2 to 4.
For brands: Black Friday is the clothing date. In 2026 Friday the 27th is the sales day and Saturday the 28th the holiday, so plan and measure the two days separately.
Finding
5On Mother’s Day the gift is perfume, and it is bought early
Over the Mother’s Day long weekend, Saturday December 6 to Monday December 8, the share of shoppers who bought perfume was more than three times that of a normal October or November weekend, and higher than on the other December weekends.
The purchase also comes early. Perfume’s strongest week of the whole season was December 1 to 7, the week before the holiday, and perfume had a second rise in the two weeks before Christmas, when it returns as a gift.
Window: Saturday December 6 to Monday December 8, 2025, against the same weekdays between October 4 and November 26, holidays excluded, and against the weekends of December 13-15 and 20-22. The weekly comparison uses the weeks of October 6 to November 16 as reference.
For brands: the perfume campaign has to be live from December 1. A campaign that arrives on the holiday weekend arrives halfway through the purchase.
Finding
6Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve are celebrated with grapes, and on the 25th the cart stops
On December 24, more than one in ten of the panel’s shoppers had grapes on their receipt, and on the 31st it happened again. On a normal October or November Wednesday that share is only 1.3 in 100, and buying already rises two or three days before: on the eve, one shopper in fourteen took grapes.
Toys follow a different rhythm from decorations. Instead of peaking in early December, they grew week after week until Christmas week, and on the 24th they weighed almost twice as much in the cart as on a normal December Wednesday. The next day the cart stops: the 25th was the quietest day of the whole quarter, with fewer than half of the people who shop on a normal Thursday.
Share of the day’s shoppers who bought grapes
| Day | Shoppers with grapes |
|---|---|
| Normal October or November Wednesday, 2025 | 1.3% |
| Wednesday December 24 | 11.8% |
| Wednesday December 31 | 10.6% |
Window: December 24 and 31, 2025 against the Wednesdays from October 4 to November 26, and toys on the 24th against Wednesdays December 3, 10 and 17. The 25th: people with any receipt that day against the Thursdays of October and November. Shoppers: people with any receipt that day.
For brands: grapes are won on two days, the 24th and the 31st, with buying rising two or three days before, so stock and display must be ready from the 20th and the 27th. Toys, unlike decorations, call for holding the campaign through Christmas week, and no promotion should depend on the 25th.
Finding
7Halloween shows in costumes, not in sweets
Halloween does show up in the Panamanian cart, but somewhere else. From mid to late October, costumes, witch hats and Halloween decorations multiplied by more than 30 against their level the rest of the year, peaking in the last week of the month, although they remain few: around 2 in every 1,000 products, against Christmas’s 20 at its peak.
Sweets, on the other hand, barely moved. The share of shoppers who bought sweets on October 31 was very close to a normal Friday’s, and the rise visible in the quantity of sweets is concentrated in a few shoppers.
Window: Halloween products identified by their description (costumes, hats, decorations), weeks of October 13 to November 2, 2025 against the February-August 2026 average. Sweets: Friday October 31 against the Fridays from October 4 to November 26, holidays excluded.
For brands: Halloween is a costumes and decorations date, with its window from mid-October. For sweets it brings no peak in shoppers.
To decide
The 2026 marketing calendar
What the cart showed in the last quarter of 2025, date by date, carried over to the 2026 calendar. The recommendations rest on what was observed in 2025 and do not forecast volumes.
| 2026 date | What 2025 showed | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Saturday October 31 · Halloween | Costumes and decorations multiplied by more than 30 from mid-October, but sweets barely moved. | Costumes and decorations: presence from mid-October. Sweets: expect no peak in shoppers. |
| Tuesday November 3 to Thursday November 5 · patriotic holidays | Almost one in five dollars was spent outside Panamá and Panamá Oeste, and the share of shoppers buying beer was close to 70% higher. | Presence, stock and display in the interior, and drinks promotions during the holidays. |
| Tuesday November 10 | In the week after this holiday, the share of Christmas products in the cart almost doubled. | Christmas display ready and campaign live. |
| Friday November 27 · Black Friday | More than twice as many shoppers at clothing stores as on a normal October or November Friday (in 2025, the same day as Independence Day). | Concentrate the clothing offer on the Friday, and measure Saturday the 28th, the Independence Day holiday, separately. |
| Black Friday week to December 14 | The three heaviest weeks for Christmas products. | Concentrate the decorations campaign there. |
| Tuesday December 1 | The week before Mother’s Day was perfume’s strongest of the whole season. | Perfume and gift campaigns live from this day. |
| Tuesday December 8 · Mother’s Day | Over the long weekend, the share of shoppers with perfume was more than three times that of a normal October or November weekend. | Reinforce perfume displays in the days before. |
| December 15 to 24 | Toys grew every week until Christmas week, while decorations were already on the way out. | Keep the toy campaign going and scale down decorations. |
| Thursday December 24 and Thursday December 31 | More than one shopper in ten bought grapes on each day, and buying was already rising two or three days before. | Grape stock and display ready from the 20th and the 27th. |
| Friday December 25 | The quietest day of the quarter, with fewer than half of the people who shop on a normal Thursday (in 2025 the 25th fell on a Thursday). | Schedule no promotions for this day. |
The edition’s reading
The high season is a calendar, not a month.
The Panamanian cart’s last quarter is bought by dates. Christmas decorating happens in Mother’s Day week, the patriotic holidays move part of spending out of the capital, Black Friday is a clothing day, perfume is bought the week before December 8 and grapes are won on two nights. Each of those dates has its own basket and its own window, and none matches the idea of an even Christmas season from November to December.
For a brand or a chain, planning the last quarter as a single block means arriving late to almost every one of these dates. The useful question is which purchase each week brings and when to be present to capture it. That calendar, category by category and with named chains, is what our custom reports deliver.
Cuestio panel · DGI electronic invoices contributed by facturillo users · September 2025 to January 2026, each date against comparable days of October and November 2025
Every month
Get the next edition the day it publishes.
Subscribe and every edition of El Carrito Real reaches you the day it comes out, with every finding, the data tables and the citable figures.
The index only. Nothing else.
What every edition brings
- Every figure carries its window. The data comes from DGI electronic invoices that facturillo users choose to share.
- Open data tables under every chart.
- Citable figures for press and analysts, with source and permanent link.
- Chains anonymized in public figures. Named detail is delivered in tailored reports.
Methodological note
How edition 003 is measured
The Cuestio panel is made up of facturillo users who choose to share their DGI electronic invoices. The base is urban and digital: results are panel proportions, gaps and patterns, not national market sizes. Every figure in this edition uses DGI electronic invoices only, requires a minimum of 30 distinct profiles and states its window next to the figure. The dates are measured from September 2025 to January 2026, a period already complete in the panel, and each is compared against comparable days of October and November 2025, the same weekday and without holidays. Products are identified by the description on each receipt, location by the province of the issuing branch, and receipts above $2,500 are excluded. In 2025 Black Friday coincided with Independence Day. The comparison days of the patriotic holidays and of Mother’s Day include Saturday October 4 and Sunday October 5, days of the Panamá Black Weekend. Without them no published figure falls: the share of shoppers buying beer would be somewhat higher than published, and the other figures do not change. The marketing calendar’s recommendations rest on what was observed in 2025 and do not forecast volumes. Figures verified at the October 2026 publication cut. If we correct a published figure, we say so here. Full methodology at cuestio.com/en/methodology.
Citability
Every edition, a permanent link.
The index is free to access and any outlet or analyst may cite it. Every edition keeps its own permanent link, which does not change when the next one comes out. Edition 003 lives at cuestio.com/en/carrito-real/003 and any figure can be cited as: "Cuestio, El Carrito Real de Panamá, edition 003".
Editions
Edition 003 · The cart’s calendar · October 2026 · current edition.
Edition 002 · Payday in the cart · September 2026
Edition 001 · The World Cup in the cart · August 2026