Archived edition · September 2026. The current edition of El Carrito Real is edition 003, The cart’s calendar.
The Cuestio index edition 002September 2026
Payday in the cart.
In Panama salaries are paid twice a month, and that payment calendar shows up clearly in what households buy and when in the month they buy it. In this edition of El Carrito Real we look at how spending moves across the month, from payday to the week when families stretch what is left, based on the Cuestio panel's analysis of the DGI electronic invoices contributed by facturillo users, with each day compared against the same weekday of its own month. We close with the décimo, Panama's mandatory mid-year bonus: how many days it showed up in the cart, and how many more weeks advertisers kept selling it.
The edition in three figures
Household spending in Panama is organized around payday, not around the calendar.
On payday, supermarkets sell 17% more than on a normal day, the biggest shopping day of the month is the 1st rather than either payday, and August's décimo, the most anticipated extra income of the year, was visible in the cart for three days.
Figures verified at the publication cut of September 7, 2026. Chains anonymized in public figures.
Finding
1On payday, supermarkets sell 17% more
Between March and June 2026 the panel recorded eight paydays, counting the 15th and the last day of each month, and the pattern repeats: total spending rises 9% compared with the same weekday of that month, and in supermarkets the increase reaches 17%, above normal on five of the eight paydays.
It is worth noting that the increase comes mostly from larger purchases on each visit and only partly from more visits. The average supermarket receipt climbs from $31.53 on the lowest-spending days to $33.81 on payday, with 10% more items per receipt, and the median receipt rises from $12.91 to $14.05, which shows that the whole distribution of purchases shifts upward.
Window: paydays on the 15th and the last day of each month, March to June 2026, against the same weekday within the same month. Ticket and items per receipt on supermarket invoices, payday against days 21 to 29.
Finding
2The month has two peaks, and the higher one comes at month-end
Although Panamanians are paid twice a month, the two paydays do not carry the same weight in the cart. In the three days following the payday on the 15th, panel spending sits 9% above normal, while in the three days following the month-end payday the increase is 17%. The highest point of the month, moreover, does not fall on a payday at all but on the 1st, with spending 38% above a normal day, well above any payday.
The most likely explanation lies in the payment calendar itself. Month-end salaries arrive on the 30th or 31st and are spent mostly the following day, when the new month starts with a pantry to restock, whereas the mid-month pay arrives halfway through and is spread more gradually over the days that follow.
Panel spend by day of the month, against the same weekday of its month
| Day | Change |
|---|---|
| Day 1 | +38.2% |
| Day 15, mid-month payday | +8.2% |
| Day 16 | +7.8% |
| Days 22 and 23, the weakest of the month | −15.9% · −13.7% |
| Day 30 | +9.3% |
| Day 31 | +4.6% |
| Mid-month payday wave, payday and the two days after | +9.2% |
| Month-end payday wave, payday and the two days after | +16.7% |
Window: March to June 2026, all commerce. Each day is compared against the average of the same weekday within its month. Waves average the payday and the two days after it.
Finding
3From the 21st to the 29th, spending drops more than 8%
Between the 21st and the 29th of each month, panel spending sits more than 8% below its normal level, and in supermarkets the drop is close to 14%. The two lowest-spending days of the entire month are the 22nd and 23rd, at 16% and 14% below normal, which confirms that it is in the last week before the month-end payday that households manage what they have left most carefully.
It is important to point out that the supposed run-up to mid-month payday, the 12th, 13th and 14th, shows no contraction at all. On those three days spending stays within its normal range, between 3% below and 7% above, so the tightening of the household budget happens at the end of the month rather than before the payday on the 15th.
| Stretch | Change |
|---|---|
| Days 21 to 29, all commerce | −8.3% |
| Days 21 to 29, supermarkets | −14.1% |
| Day 22 | −15.9% |
| Day 23 | −13.7% |
| Days 12, 13 and 14, the run-up to mid-month payday | −3.4% · +5.3% · +7.1% |
The squeeze on Panamanian household budgets falls between the 21st and the 29th, not in the days before mid-month payday.
Finding
4Payday shopping is about stocking the home
Payday changes the make-up of the supermarket basket. The categories bought to stock the home gain share, with pantry staples 14% above their usual weight, personal care 13% and household cleaning 11%, while the categories of immediate consumption lose share: treats and impulse purchases fall 12%, fruit and vegetables 12%, and beer and spirits 5%. It should be noted that these categories also sell more in dollars on payday, but they grow less than the rest of the cart, which is why their relative weight declines.
Looking product by product, toilet paper is the category that gains the most on payday, with a share 26% higher in supermarket receipts and 34% higher across all retail, followed by bath soap (+24%), bleach (+20%), fabric softener (+19%), flour (+19%) and cooking oil (+18%). At the other end, sodas (−17%), candy (−17%) and beer (−11%) are the categories that lose the most weight in the cart that day.
The same behavior can be seen outside the supermarket: on payday, restaurant meals lose 11% of share and fuel loses 15%, which suggests that the paycheck goes first to restocking the pantry and only afterwards to immediate consumption.
Change in each group's share of supermarket lines on payday
| Group | Change in share |
|---|---|
| Pantry | +14.1% |
| Personal care | +13.1% |
| Household cleaning | +10.7% |
| Fresh meat | +2.1% |
| Beer and spirits | −4.6% |
| Treats and impulse | −11.6% |
| Fruit and vegetables | −12.4% |
| Category | Change in share |
|---|---|
| Toilet paper | +26.3% |
| Bath soap | +23.6% |
| Bleach and disinfectants | +20.0% |
| Fabric softeners | +19.3% |
| Flour | +18.7% |
| Cooking oil | +17.6% |
| Beer | −11.1% |
| Salty snacks | −8.7% |
| Chocolates | −12.2% |
| Sodas | −16.6% |
| Candy | −16.8% |
| Fresh fruit | −17.6% |
Window: March to June 2026, supermarket electronic invoices. Each category's share of purchase lines on payday against the weekday-matched baseline. These are changes in share, not in dollars.
Finding
5The basket runs on a 15-day rhythm, not a 30-day one
To confirm that the fortnightly paycheck is the dominant rhythm of consumption, we analyzed the daily series of supermarket basket size, measured as the average number of items per receipt, and looked for the cycles that explain its variation. The result is clear-cut: a 15-day cycle explains 31% of all the daily variation in basket size, while the 30-day cycle that would correspond to the calendar month explains barely 0.5% and the weekly cycle 1.7%.
In other words, the paycheck's fingerprint is plainly visible in the statistics: Panamanian households organize their shopping to the rhythm of payday, twice a month, and no other cycle comes close to that weight.
Share of the daily variation in basket size explained by each cycle
| Cycle | Share of variation |
|---|---|
| 15.15 days, the dominant cycle | 31.3% |
| 7.6 days | 1.7% |
| 30.3 days | 0.5% |
Window: 303 days, September 2025 to June 2026, supermarket electronic invoices scanned within 30 days of purchase. Daily series of average items per receipt, detrended and weekday-adjusted, analyzed by periodogram.
Finding
6The décimo showed up for four days in April and three in August
Twice a year the payday cycle receives an additional boost from the décimo tercer mes, Panama's mandatory bonus. In April 2026, the payday on the 15th, which included the décimo, lifted the panel's daily spending 8% above a normal payday for four days, Wednesday through Saturday, and from Sunday onward spending returned to the level of any other payday. The shape of the increase was the same as on a regular payday: there were no additional shopping trips, but bigger carts, with an average receipt almost 10% higher.
August's décimo was paid on a Saturday, and in that case the effect lasted three days. On Sunday, August 16, the panel spent almost 30% more than on a normal payday Sunday, on Monday the 17th spending was still 29% above normal, and by Tuesday there was no trace left of the extra payment. Nor was there any head start on Friday the 14th, when many workers already had the money in their accounts, and shopping trips did not increase: once again it was bigger carts, not more trips.
As for where that money went, the supermarket was not the main beneficiary. In April, the additional spending on the décimo days was concentrated disproportionately in durable goods: electronics and appliances more than doubled their usual spending, clothing rose 36% and home goods 32%, while supermarkets grew 9%, less than the other categories.
August · September 7 cut
In August the décimo money was spread more evenly than in April. Between Saturday the 15th and Monday the 17th, spending on electronics, home goods and clothing taken together came in 51% above a normal payday weekend, and supermarkets, which had barely moved in April, rose 26%, with Sunday as their strongest day. The category-by-category detail presented for April is published only where the volume of invoices in each category allows it, and for August it is presented by broad group.
April 2026: daily panel spend against a normal payday, in the days after the décimo
| Stretch | Change |
|---|---|
| Days 0 to 3, Wednesday 15 to Saturday 18 | +7.8% |
| Days 4 to 7, Sunday 19 to Wednesday 22 | −0.4% |
| Days 8 to 11, Thursday 23 to Sunday 26 | +0.6% |
| Shopping trips, days 0 to 5 | +0.1% |
| Average receipt, days 0 to 5 | +9.9% |
| Category | Change |
|---|---|
| Electronics and appliances | +113% |
| Clothing | +36% |
| Furniture and home | +32% |
| Restaurants and cafés | +16% |
| Supermarket | +9% |
| Measure | Change |
|---|---|
| Total panel spend | +26% |
| Shopping trips | +4.7% |
| Supermarket | +26% |
| Electronics, home and clothing, together | +51% |
| Sunday 16, total spend | +28% |
| Monday 17, total spend | +29% |
Window: April 2026 against the other 15ths from October 2025 to May 2026, with the week before payday as the reference. August: Saturday 15 to Monday 17 against the payday weekends of the last year, on a comparable scan basis, September 7 cut. The April category table is a ranking, not a dollar measure.
April's décimo showed up in the cart for four days, and August's for three.
Finding
7Décimo advertising is still running weeks after the effect ended
August's décimo was paid on Saturday the 15th and its effect on the cart ended on Monday the 17th. In advertising, however, the décimo was still very much present three weeks later: on September 7, a search for the term "décimo" in Meta's Ad Library returned close to 1,700 active ads in Panama, and of the first 154 ads reviewed, 111 used the décimo as the reason to buy. The advertisers include banks, car dealerships, electronics retailers, shopping malls and fast-food chains, and at the end of August several of these campaigns were promising, quite literally, a "décimo month".
The panel data shows a different picture: three weeks after the payment, the extra money no longer appears in the invoices. A décimo campaign still running in September is speaking to a consumer who has already spent what they were going to spend, so for a brand the real décimo window is not the whole month but the payday weekend, and the advertising that works best is the campaign that is ready by Friday.
Source for the ads: Meta Ad Library, active ads, country Panama, search "décimo", consulted on September 7, 2026. It is a public source, separate from the panel. Advertisers are not named.
The edition's reading
Household spending follows the rhythm of the paycheck, not the calendar.
A 15-day cycle explains 31% of the daily variation in the basket, while the monthly cycle barely registers. Within that cycle the month-end payday is the stronger one, with spending 17% higher in the wave that follows the last day of the month compared with 9% after the 15th, and the 1st of the month is the biggest shopping day. The décimo does not change that rhythm. It simply amplifies it for three or four days and then disappears.
For a brand or a retail chain, the relevant question is not which month to launch a promotion but which day to do it. Promotions and advertising that coincide with the payday weekend capture the moment of highest spending, while those that arrive two weeks later land in the lowest-spending week of the month. That calendar, category by category and with named chains, is worked out in tailored reports.
Cuestio panel · DGI electronic invoices contributed by facturillo users · March to June 2026, each day against the same weekday of its month
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Methodological note
How edition 002 is measured
The Cuestio panel is made up of facturillo users who choose to share their DGI electronic invoices. The base is urban and digital: results are panel shares, gaps and patterns, not national market sizes. Every figure in this edition uses exclusively DGI electronic invoices, requires a minimum of 30 distinct profiles and states its window next to the data. The monthly cycle is measured from March to June 2026, each day against the average of the same weekday within its month, with invoices above $2,500 excluded. The 15-day pulse is measured over 303 days, September 2025 to June 2026, on a 30-day comparable scan basis. April's décimo is measured against the other 15ths of the year with the week before payday as the reference, and August's on a comparable scan basis, with reconfirmation at the mid-September cut. The ads come from Meta's Ad Library, a public source separate from the panel. Figures verified at the publication cut of September 7, 2026. The August figures correspond to that cut and update the preliminary reading of August 19. If we correct a published figure, we say so here. Full methodology at cuestio.com/en/methodology.
Citability
Every edition, a permanent link.
The index is free to read and any outlet or analyst can cite it. Every edition keeps its own permanent link and it does not change when the next one is published. Edition 002 lives at cuestio.com/en/carrito-real/002 and any figure can be cited like this: "Cuestio, El Carrito Real de Panamá, edition 002".
Editions
Edition 003 · The cart’s calendar · October 2026 · current edition.
Edition 002 · Payday in the cart · September 2026 · this edition.
Edition 001 · The World Cup in the cart · August 2026